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What will technologies like AI and robots mean for the future of work?

It’s a question that pops up regularly, and many are eager to weigh in on it.But what do researchers, who actually work with robots and artificial intelligence, say about automation and how it affects the labour market?

Here’s what you need to know.

Robots are already here

The first thing they say is yes. Robots will take our jobs. In fact, they already have—on a large scale.Since the 1960s, industrial robots have entered factories, leading to increased production. But according to a 2020 MIT report, they’ve also replaced about 400,000 jobs in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Even outside factories, automation has taken over many daily tasks—often without us realising it.

– If you live in Copenhagen and use the metro, you’re essentially riding a giant robot. It runs automatically, replacing the need for train drivers in every carriage. There are still people monitoring operations, but far fewer than before, says Alf Rehn, professor at the Department of Technology and Innovation and an AI researcher.

- If you have a dishwasher at home you also have a robot taking care of your dishes. There are many similar examples. 

Although some might argue this is a broad definition of robots, Rehn’s argument is that robots – or machines, if you like – have gradually been taking over our jobs for a long time. It’s just less dramatic than in science fiction movies.

No need to panic

However, there’s no need for alarm, the researchers say. Robots will replace some jobs, but not all.

- Robots are good at certain tasks but still struggle with many others, and this won’t change for a long time, explains Norbert Krüger, professor of robotics at the Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Institute.

- There are two major challenges in robotics. One is intelligence—how do you get robots to genuinely think for themselves? That’s difficult, and it is also a philosophical question. There is an ongoing debate about whether, for instance, chatbots can actually think or whether they simply repeat things from a large database. The second is fine motor skills, which robots find equally hard. That is why I always tell my son that if he wants a future-proof job, he should become a hairdresser. Robots won’t be able to replicate what hairdressers do anytime soon.

Robots as colleagues

Rehn suggests that robots will often take over only the repetitive, labour-intensive tasks, acting more as tools or even colleagues rather than competitors.

- We’ve had robot vacuum cleaners for years, but they haven’t made traditional vacuum cleaners obsolete. We still need the traditional vacuum cleaners for our sofa or for getting into those tight corners, he explains.

- Technological changes are often slower and messier than expected. Old and new technologies often coexist for years. So, in the future, we’ll need both cleaning robots and cleaning staff, both human drivers and automated transport solutions.

Norbert Krüger adds that future job opportunities will include both existing roles and entirely new ones. But many people might need reskilling or further education, so adaptability will be key.

- Robots will handle many repetitive tasks. But aren’t those tasks ones that many of us would gladly give up? asks Krüger.

Moreover, society might prevent the automisation of certain roles such as nurses and social care workers, where human interaction is essential. At least, so does the researchers hope. 

- If one does not ethically decide to counteract it, the risk is that elder care, for instance, will become 'industrialized' and inhumane. And I believe that very few people are interested in that, says Krüger.

It’s all about the money

In Denmark, studies show that automation can create more jobs, increase wages, and generally make the country wealthier. For instance, a 2017 report by McKinsey and Aarhus University highlighted such benefits.

But Dylan Cawthorne, a lecturer in drone technology and ethics, urges caution. He points out that this isn’t a guaranteed outcome everywhere, particularly in developing nations.

- Those of us who are developing robots aren’t hired by the workers—we’re hired by business owners who primarily seek profit. So, we don’t necessarily create solutions that benefit employees, Cawthorne explains.

Self-checkout machines in supermarkets are but one example from our everyday lives, he says:

- They’re marketed as a convenience, but they’ve led to job cuts for cashiers and increased workload for those who remain. Plus, customers now do part of the job themselves.

Cawthorne warns that, even though there might exist examples of the opposite, companies generally prioritise profitability over employee or consumer welfare. He mentions Amazon’s algorithm-driven system, where workers are constantly monitored and automatically fired if they fall short of performance targets.

Universal basic income? 

And now that we’ve touched upon the darker future scenarios, we could turn to the American author Kurt Vonnegut’s 1952 novel 'Player Piano'. The novel depicts a world where robots handle most work, leaving the majority of people poor and jobless.

Alf Rehn finds this scenario unlikely, as he believes people wouldn’t tolerate such inequality and would demand change. He’s optimistic that legislation and regulation will help distribute the wealth created by robots more fairly.

- I think a larger proportion of people will work less in the future. This could give them more time to focus on art, entrepreneurship, or personal growth, says Rehn.

One proposed solution for the distribution of wealth in an increasingly automated economy is the idea of universal basic income. It involves giving all citizens a modest guaranteed income, without having to do anything, allowing them to choose whether to work, start a business, volunteer, or simply pursue personal interests.

AI: The wild card

However, all of the researchers repeatedly stress that no one is able to predict the future with certainty. Technological development is notoriously hard to foresee.

- We must remain humble when discussing this. We can’t assume we know exactly how things will unfold, says Rehn.

Krüger believes that AI systems like ChatGPT and similar technologies will soon disrupt society more than physical robots.

- These services show surprising level of something resembling intelligence, and I think we’re only at the start of a curve where they’ll become more prevalent, Krüger says.

Dylan Cawthorne agrees: 

- Software, such as AI services, can spread much faster than hardware like drones and robots. And right now, we see that many large tech companies are deprioritizing ethics, while many politicians are talking about deregulation. This will only accelerate the development.

As something rather novel, AI might also take over jobs traditionally held by highly educated professionals.

- We’ve assumed that technology mainly affects low-skilled workers, but that’s changing. White-collar jobs, including leadership roles, could also be replaced by AI, says Rehn.

- All of us should consider which parts of our work could be done just as well—or even better—by a robot or an AI.